Yes, Jai Opetaia can beat Deontay Wilder, and most analysts expect him to. The unbeaten Australian (31-0) is ten years younger, faster and far more active. But Wilder (45-4-1, 43 KOs) still carries one of the most dangerous right hands in heavyweight history, and Opetaia has never been hit by a man his size. They meet as the co-feature to Fury vs Joshua in Cardiff on December 11, 2026.
On this page
Wilder vs Opetaia: The Short Answer
- Opetaia wins if he uses speed, southpaw angles and volume to keep Wilder from setting his feet.
- Wilder wins if he lands one clean right hand, most likely early, before Opetaia settles at heavyweight.
- The size gap is real: Opetaia, listed at 6ft 2in, gives away about four inches in height and seven in reach.
How Jai Opetaia Beats Deontay Wilder
The southpaw problem. Opetaia fights left-handed. When his lead foot sits outside Wilder’s, he can step away from the right hand rather than into it, which is exactly where Wilder wants his opponents to be.
Work rate. Wilder often waits, measures with the jab and loads up one big shot. Opetaia throws in combinations and works the body. If he wins rounds clearly and keeps Wilder thinking, the older man may never find the moment he needs.
Wilder’s recent form. After two defeats to Tyson Fury, Wilder lost four of five fights between 2020 and 2025, including stoppages. He returned with a split-decision win over Derek Chisora in April 2026, but he no longer looks like the fighter who ran through the division.
How Deontay Wilder Beats Jai Opetaia
One punch. Wilder has stopped 43 of his 50 opponents. Even past his best, his right hand changes fights in a single moment, and he does not need to win rounds to win the fight.
Size and power at a new weight. Opetaia has spent his whole career at cruiserweight. His chin and strength have never been tested by a full-size heavyweight puncher. Some trainers also point out that his defence can be loose when he opens up, which gives Wilder a target.
Experience. Wilder has shared the ring with Fury three times and has 15 years of heavyweight fights behind him. Opetaia is stepping into a new world on the biggest stage of his career.
Have Cruiserweights Succeeded at Heavyweight Before?
Yes, and that is why many back Opetaia. Evander Holyfield and Oleksandr Usyk both moved up from cruiserweight to become undisputed or unified heavyweight champions. Usyk went on to beat Anthony Joshua twice and Tyson Fury twice, using the same mix of speed, footwork and southpaw angles that Opetaia brings. The difference is that both men built up at heavyweight before facing a puncher like Wilder.
What the Experts Say
Former WBO cruiserweight champion Johnny Nelson has said he likes the fight for Opetaia and believes the Australian could score a big knockout. Trainer Stephen Edwards sees Opetaia as the likely favourite but thinks Wilder has a real chance because Opetaia is not always tight defensively. Most previews agree on one thing: the first half of the fight is when Wilder is most dangerous.
Our Verdict: Can Opetaia Beat Wilder?
We think he can, and probably will. Opetaia should win most of the exchanges with movement and volume, and as Wilder slows down, a stoppage in the second half of the fight becomes likely. The upset path is simple and real: one clean right hand in the early rounds. This is our editorial view, not betting advice.
For the full tale of the tape, start time and FAQ, read our Wilder vs Opetaia guide, and see the rest of the Fury vs Joshua undercard.
